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On site presentation Uploading Begins: 6 January

Extended Manuscript Deadline: 10 February

An abstract fee of $95 (payable by credit card or purchase order) is charged at the time of submission (refundable only if abstract is not accepted).

All abstracts, manuscripts and presentations will be available on the AMS Web site at no cost.

Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

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      The theme for the 2013 AMS Annual Meeting is "Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today's Weather, Water, and Climate Forecasting and Projections".  Over last half century operational weather forecasting has developed into a fundamental element of our society’s infrastructure. In addition, over the last two decades seasonal to interannual climate prediction has emerged from a research activity into an operational enterprise benefiting our broader society as well as decision makers in both government and private/commercial sectors.  Over the last decade attention on predictability at the scales between traditional weather forecasting and those associated with seasonal climate prediction has grown.  A notable source of predictability at this intervening time scale is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has a life cycle on the order of 30-60 days and indications of useful predictability with lead times of 3-4 weeks.  The MJO interacts with many weather and climate phenomena, such as tropical cyclones, the monsoons, ENSO and extratropical weather.  It is anticipated that improved predictions of the MJO will lead to improved forecasting capabilities of these weather and climate phenomena, as well as fill the gap between traditional weather and seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. Gains in modeling capabilities and experimental prediction skill of the MJO over the last few years have led to the recent establishment of operational predictions of the MJO. While current prediction skill of the MJO is still limited, it is expected to continue to improve through advances in physical understanding, modeling capabilities, assimilation practices and computation resources.

      As a contribution to the overall theme of prediction of the 2013 AMS Annual Meeting, a special symposium focusing on MJO prediction is soliciting papers on the following topics:

  • The current status of dynamical and statistical predictions of the MJO
  • Potential benefits to weather and climate forecasts by improved MJO prediction
  • MJO predictability
  • Improving observations, data assimilation practices, and modeling capabilities to advance MJO prediction
  • Theoretical basis and practical strategy of improving MJO prediction
  • Applications and decision support associated with MJO prediction

      The proposed symposium will include invited talks, regular oral and postal presentations. It is expected to draw participants from operational forecast centers, private forecast and consulting companies, research institutes, and academia worldwide. A joint session on "Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand" will be held in conjunction with the "4th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy", "25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (CVC)" and "11th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences".

     For additional information please contact the program chairpersons, Duane Waliser (email: duane.e.waliser@jpl.nasa.gov) and Chidong Zhang (email: czhang@rsmas.miami.edu).