Cause and effect: Detecting planned and inadvertent changes in the weather
The AMS statement on weather modification states that a statistical evaluation is needed for establishing that a significant change resulted from a given cloud seeding activity. This is commonly achieved through the design and statistical evaluation of randomized seeding experiments. However, rarely are sufficient resources set aside for instrumenting, operating, and evaluating randomized experiments. Therefore, how does one detect and evaluate changes due to operational seeding activities, for example, that are designed to affect precipitation processes such as cloud microphysics, precipitation, and hydrological effects? Even more "uncontrolled" are inadvertent effects of aerosol loading, dust or volcanic episodes, land use changes, and other weather perturbations or long-term changes. How does one detect and ascribe effects to such inadvertent and uncontrolled causes? The focus of this session is to shed light on these and related questions regarding the detection of planned and inadvertent changes in clouds and the weather. In addition, papers describing experiences or research in communicating to the lay person the nuances of cause and effect, from a statistical viewpoint, are encouraged.
19th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification
Contact(s): Dan Breed, email@example.com
Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Climate Prediction
Contact(s): Barb Brown, firstname.lastname@example.org