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Engagement and Impact through Themed Joint Sessions

We are expecting, with your participation and involvement, these themed joint sessions will serve as a catalyst for focusing the attention of the research and operational communities (and also those who are involved in accelerating the transition of research results into operations) on the exciting possibilities related to advancing predictive capabilities across many fields and applications.
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Medium-range, Sub-seasonal and Seasonal-scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand

One of the most important topics in energy meteorology today revolves around medium to long-range weather forecasting beyond the well-accepted skill horizon of numerical weather prediction (i.e. time scales of 2-weeks to 3-months). This session will include submitted papers, invited papers and panel discussions to advance the discourse on long-range weather forecasting and explore research methods developed by various researchers around the world. We anticipate discussing: • Empirical Techniques • Statistical Modeling • Numerical Weather Prediction • Artificial Intelligence • Applications for Energy Demand • Forecast Skill • Economic Value • Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Participation may range from practitioner presentations (non-academic) to submission of academic papers and published research. Short-range weather forecasts (with lead times under 5-7 days) have become much more accurate in the recent decade. Beyond that short horizon, forecasts with lead times on the order of two weeks to one month remain a challenge. Relationships with climate modes such as the ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North American), etc. have been explored, and some rules-of-thumb exist for utilizing these variables in long-rage weather prediction. While academic studies have provided invaluable information towards improving our understanding of outbreaks of extreme temperature, there still remains much uncertainty. Many findings and approximations relating local or remote weather and climate features to severe weather events have been discovered, but the statistical significance of these relationships, particularly its dependence on the relevant climate modes, has not been rigorously investigated, presenting difficulties for operational meteorologists in estimating the likelihood of a severe weather event. Our goal is to advance the discourse on long-range weather forecasting and explore research methods developed by various researchers around the world
 

Host Conference(s)

4th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Contact(s): Steve Bennett, Stephen.Bennett@EarthRiskTech.com

Partnering Conference(s)

25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (CVC), 11th Conf on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences, Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Contact(s): 25CVC: hai.lin@ec.gc.ca 11INTEL: Amy McGovern, amcgovern@ou.edu MJO: Duane Waliser, duane.waliser@jpl.nasa.gov