The special one-day symposium on Multi-scale atmospheric predictability, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society, will be held on Wednesday, 25 January 2017, as part of the 97th AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington.
With ever increasing computing resources, weather and climate prediction models have seen considerable improvements over the years through the use of increasingly fine resolutions with more accurate physics while ingesting more observations with increasingly advanced data assimilation techniques. Global convection-permitting models that seamlessly integrate weather and climate predictions from convective, mesoscale and synoptic to seasonal and intraseasonal scales are now within sight. In the meantime, the demands and expectations for more accurate forecasts at all scales are ever increasing.
Through a mix of invited and contributed presentations, this special one-day symposium solicits papers on recent progress and challenges in our current understanding of both the practical and intrinsic aspects of multi-scale atmospheric predictability for various weather and climate phenomena, including tornadic thunderstorms, mesoscale convective vortices, tropical cyclones, winter snowstorms, flooding, heat waves, droughts, MJOs, monsoons and ENSOs. Practical predictability refers to the current capability of a forecast system or agency under best practice given state-of-the-art models with state-of-the-art initial and boundary conditions. Intrinsic predictability refers to the limit of prediction at different temporal and spatial scales given nearly perfect initial conditions and nearly perfect forecast models. Understanding the limits of intrinsic predictability is crucial in setting expectations and priorities for advancing deterministic forecasting (through better model, observing network and data assimilation) and in providing guidance on the design of advanced probabilistic and ensemble prediction.
The $95 abstract fee (payable by credit card or purchase order) is refundable only if your abstract is not accepted.
Your fee includes your abstract, extended abstract (optional), and your recorded oral presentation posted to the online program which is available to all visitors for free.
Partial travel awards (of up to $500 each) will be awarded in recognition of outstanding abstracts submitted to the symposium. To be eligible, students must fulfill the following requirements:
· Full-time undergraduate or graduate student enrolled at a University
· Lead author, personally presenting the work,
· Submission of an abstract to a session in which the symposium is the lead conference
The student needs to indicate whether they wish to be considered for travel awards when submitting his/her abstract.
For additional information please contact co-chairs, Fuqing Zhang, Penn State University (814-865-0470, [email protected]) and Roberto Buizza, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (+44-118-9499653, [email protected]).