The Special Symposium on Catalyzing Innovation in Weather Science Internationally, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society, will be held on 8 January 2019, as part of the 99th AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona.
How does the World Weather Research Programme contribute to improving Earth System prediction and to making our society more resilient? The Symposium aims to address this question in the context of the WMO World Weather Programme, showcasing the activities of its three core projects (Polar Prediction Project, High-Impact Weather Project, the co-sponsored Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project), exploring connectivity with other communities and highlighting the role of partnerships with the U.S.
The Symposium will be organized around two themes:
Improving Earth System Prediction across weather, water and climate
Quantifying and predicting impacts, tailoring information and communicating to decision makers to make society more resilient to High Impact Weather events.
The symposium will have invited oral talks and solicited posters.
High Impact Weather Project – Building science for 21st Century Disaster Risk Reduction
The High Impact Weather project (HIWeather) is a ten year activity within the World Weather Research Programme to promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications.
Climate change is constraining us to improve preparedness for future hazards over a wide range of applications and actors. A first approach would be the evaluation of the level of resilience for current society, detecting crucial thresholds - for specific sectors and society as a whole - beyond which environmental, social or economic stability would be endangered. HIWeather is aimed at developing and applying new knowledge for 21st century disaster risk reduction.
2. Polar Prediction Project – From Research to Improved Environmental Safety
Concerns about amplification of anthropogenic climate change has led to a growing interest in the polar regions in recent years. Furthermore, increasing economic and transportation activities in polar regions are leading to more demand for sustained and improved availability of integrated observational and predictive weather, climate and water information to support decision-making. However, many gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting in polar regions hamper reliable decision-making.
The World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project aims to advance the science in numerical modeling, observing, assimilation, ensemble forecast methods, verification, user-engagement, and the production of prediction products – all with a polar emphasis. The Year of Polar Prediction, whose core-phase runs from mid-2017 to mid-2019, is the key activity of PPP.
3. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project – Breaking predictability limits
The World Weather and World Climate Research Programmes launched the Sub-seasonal to seasonal Project aiming to provide predictions from 2 weeds to 2 months ahead From the end-user perspective, the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range is a very important one, as many management decisions in agriculture and food security, water disaster risk reduction and health fall into this range. Improved weather-to-climate forecasts tailored to key social needs promise to be of significant social and economic value.
Recent research has indicated potential sources of predictability for the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range. Identifying windows of opportunity with increased forecast skill could be the basis for enhanced, actionable forecasts. Specific attention is paid to the risk of extreme events, including tropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heat waves and the waxing and waning of monsoon precipitation.